Gross State Domestic Product
The Gross State Domestic Product of Gujarat for 2018-19 (at current prices) is estimated to be Rs 14,96,013 This is 13.3% higher than the revised estimate for 2017-18.Note that the GSDP in 2017-18 is expected to be 3.5% higher than what was estimated at the budget stage.
Total expenditure for 2018-19 is estimated to be Rs 1,81,945 crore, an 8.6% increase over the revised estimate of 2017-18. In 2017-18, the revised estimates indicate that the expenditure is expected to be Rs 3,221 crore lower than the budget estimate.
Total receipts (excluding borrowings) for 2018-19 are estimated to be Rs 1,40,927 crore, an increase of 6.8% as compared to the revised estimates of 2017-18. In 2017-18, total receipts (excluding borrowings) exceeded the budgeted estimate by Rs 145 crore.
The total revenue receipts
Total revenue receipts for 2018-19 are estimated to be Rs 1,40,631 crore, an increase of 6.9% over the revised estimates of 2017-18. Of this, Rs 1,00,434 crore (71% of the revenue receipts) will be raised by the state through its own resources, and Rs 40,197 crore (29% of the revenue receipts) will be devolved by the centre in the form of grants and the state’s share in taxes.
Revenue surplus for the next financial year is targeted at Rs 5,998 crore, or 0.4% of the Gross State Domestic Product (GDP). Fiscal deficit is targeted at Rs 25,584 crore (1.7% of GSDP).
Mukhyamantri Gramoday Yojana
Under the new Mukhyamantri Gramoday Yojana, government will provide interest subvention upto 6% to train 50,000 skilled and semi-skilled workers in rural areas. An additional 2% interest subvention will be provided to women, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and persons with disabilities.
Economic growth rate
The Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Gujarat declined from 10.5% in 2014-15 to 10.1% in 2016-17.
Sectoral contribution to economy
Manufacturing sector has the maximum contribution (45%) to GSDP. Services and agriculture contribute 36% and 19% to GSDP, respectively. Growth in manufacturing declined by 6% between 2014-15 and 2016-17.
Per Capita GSDP
Per capita GSDP in 2016-17 was Rs 1,51,362 crore. It declined from 9.1% in 2014-15 to 8.6% in 2016-17.
Revenue expenditure for 2018-19 is proposed to be Rs 1,34,633 crore, which is an increase of 7.2% over revised estimates of 2017-18. This expenditure includes payment of salaries and pensions, and maintenance of existing infrastructure. In 2017-18, Gujarat’s capital expenditure was 7.4% lower than its budget estimates, while the revenue expenditure was marginally higher (0.1%).
Gujarat has estimated to generate Rs 11,705 crore through non-tax sources in 2018-19. This is a decrease of 31% over the revised estimates of 2017-18. It is majorly driven by a decrease of Rs 5,734 crore (58%) in non ferrous mining and metallurgical industries.
Total own tax revenue of Gujarat is estimated to be Rs 88,729 crore in 2018-19. The composition of the state’s tax revenue is shown in Figure 2. The tax to GSDP ratio is targeted at 5.93% in 2018-19, which is similar to the revised estimate of 5.91% in 2017-18.
It is the excess of revenue receipts over revenue expenditure. A revenue surplus implies that the government is not required to borrow in order to finance its expenses which do not create capital assets.
The budget estimates a revenue surplus of Rs 5,998 crore (0.4% of GSDP) in 2018-19. This implies that revenue receipts are expected to be higher than the revenue expenditure, resulting in a surplus. The 14th Finance Commission had recommended that states should eliminate revenue deficits. The estimates in the Gujarat Budget 2018-19 suggest that the state is expected to achieve this target of eliminating revenue deficit.
It is the excess of total expenditure over total receipts. This gap is filled by borrowings by the government, and leads to an increase in total liabilities. In 2018-19, fiscal deficit is estimated to be Rs 25,584 crore, which is 1.7% of the GSDP. This estimate is under the 3% limit prescribed by the 14th Finance Commission.
Gujarat has allocated 13.9% on education in 2018-19. This is lower than the average expenditure allocated to education by 18 other states (using 2017-18 BE).
Gujarat has allocated 4.5% of its total expenditure on health, which is marginally lower than the average expenditure of 18 other states.
The state has allocated 3.3% of its total budget on agriculture and allied activities. This is lower than the allocations of 18 other states (6.4%).
Allocation for Rural development
Gujarat has allocated 3.0% of its expenditure on rural development. This is significantly lower than the average (5.6%) of the 18 other states.
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